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The real estate landscape around Shalimar and Fort Walton Beach is experiencing its biggest shift in years. After riding the wave of the pandemic boom, we’re seeing a market that’s cooling off fast: and that means different strategies for everyone involved.
If you’re stationed at Eglin or Hurlburt Field, or you’re a civilian looking to make a move on the Emerald Coast, here’s what you need to know about the current market conditions and how to navigate them successfully.
The Numbers Don’t Lie: Shalimar’s Market Reality
Let’s start with the facts. According to recent data, the median sale price in Shalimar hit around $255,000 in August 2025: that’s a whopping 29% drop from the same time last year. Meanwhile, another source shows median home values around $378,300, still down 2.2% over the past year.
The broader Fort Walton Beach area is feeling it too, with median sale prices around $325,000 in September 2025, down about 9.7% year-over-year. These aren’t small adjustments: this is a significant market correction happening right in our backyard.
What’s driving this? Inventory is climbing, price growth is stabilizing (or in some cases, reversing), and we’re seeing a much less frantic market than during the peak boom years of 2021-2022.
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Why This Market Shift Matters to You
For Buyers: Your Time Has Come
If you’ve been watching from the sidelines, waiting for your chance to jump in, this is it. The seller-dominated market of the past few years is shifting toward something much more balanced: and in some cases, buyer-friendly.
You’ve got more negotiating power now. Those crazy bidding wars where homes went for $20K, $30K, or even $50K over asking? They’re becoming rare. You can actually take time to think about a property, get a proper inspection, and negotiate terms that work for you.
For military families especially, this timing couldn’t be better. Your VA loan benefits are more powerful in a buyer’s market, and you can use that zero-down advantage without competing against dozens of other offers.
For Sellers: Reality Check Required
If you’re getting ready for a PCS move or thinking about selling for other reasons, the old “just list it and wait for multiple offers” strategy isn’t going to work anymore. You’ll need to price realistically from day one.
The good news? Homes are still selling: they’re just taking longer and selling closer to (or sometimes below) asking price. In Shalimar, properties are averaging around 80 days on market compared to 59 days last year. That’s not catastrophic, but it means you need to plan accordingly.
For Investors: Opportunity Meets Caution
The market slowdown is opening up opportunities, especially for those looking at rental properties or vacation home investments. With less competition from frantic retail buyers, you might find better deals on properties that would have been bid up beyond reason a year ago.
But: and this is important: the automatic upside we saw during the boom years isn’t guaranteed anymore. You’ll need to do your homework on micro-market factors, rental yields, and long-term viability.
The Bigger Picture: Florida-Specific Challenges
Here’s something you can’t ignore: Florida’s broader real estate challenges are weighing on values throughout the state. Rising insurance costs, increased awareness of climate and flood risks, and a surge in housing supply are all putting pressure on prices.
For the Emerald Coast specifically, these factors hit differently. We’ve got beautiful beaches and strong military employment, but we also have hurricane exposure and flood zones that insurance companies are getting pickier about.
What to Watch Moving Forward
Days on Market Trends
Keep an eye on how long homes sit before selling. If that 80-day average starts climbing toward 100+ days, it signals demand is dropping even further. Conversely, if it starts shrinking back toward 60-70 days, the market might be stabilizing.
Inventory Levels
More listings hitting the market relative to buyers means continued negotiating power for purchasers. Check the months of supply numbers: anything over 6 months is considered a buyer’s market.
Local Military and Economic Factors
Since we’re so tied to Eglin AFB and Hurlburt Field, any changes in base operations, contractor activity, or military housing allowances can significantly impact our local market. Keep tabs on base announcements and defense spending news.
Interest Rates and Financing
Even though we’re seeing price declines, higher interest rates are still limiting affordability for many buyers. If rates start dropping, expect increased buyer activity that could stabilize or even reverse some of the price declines.
Smart Strategies for Each Situation
If You’re Buying
Take advantage of your improved negotiating position, but don’t assume every property is a great deal just because prices are down. Focus on location, condition, and long-term factors like flood risk and insurance costs.
Consider properties that have been on the market for 60+ days: sellers might be more motivated to negotiate. And don’t forget to factor in total monthly costs, including insurance, which has increased significantly in Florida.
If You’re Selling
Price competitively from the start. Looking at comparable sales from 6+ months ago isn’t going to cut it: focus on recent sales and current active listings in your price range.
Consider timing your sale for late fall through early spring when military PCS activity picks up. And be prepared to offer incentives like covering closing costs or including home warranties to stand out from other listings.
If You’re Investing
Look for distressed sellers or properties that have been on the market extended periods. Focus on areas with strong rental fundamentals: near the bases, close to beaches, or in established neighborhoods with good schools.
Run conservative numbers on rental income and factor in higher insurance and maintenance costs. The days of buying any property and watching it appreciate 15-20% annually are over, at least for now.
Your Next Steps: Action Items by Category
For Buyers Ready to Move:
• Get pre-approved with a military-friendly lender who understands VA loans
• Research flood zones and insurance costs for any property you’re considering
• Contact a local agent who specializes in military relocations for current inventory updates
• Set up MLS alerts for properties in your target areas and price ranges
• Schedule property viewings without feeling rushed: you have time now
For Sellers Planning a Move:
• Get a current market analysis from a local agent familiar with recent sales
• Consider pre-listing inspections to identify and address issues upfront
• Research comparable properties that have sold in the past 90 days, not 6+ months ago
• Budget for potential price reductions or seller concessions
• Plan for a longer marketing period than you might have needed 2-3 years ago
For Investors Exploring Opportunities:
• Analyze rental rates and occupancy data for different neighborhoods
• Research insurance costs and flood risk for potential investment properties
• Connect with property management companies to understand real operating costs
• Look into short-term rental regulations and potential revenue in different areas
• Consider partnerships with other military investors for larger deals or shared expertise
The Shalimar and Fort Walton Beach markets are definitely in transition, but that creates opportunities for those who understand what’s happening and adjust their strategies accordingly. Whether you’re buying your first home, selling before a PCS, or looking to build wealth through real estate investing, the key is working with professionals who understand both the current market dynamics and the unique needs of military families.
